新加坡银行股遭遇抛售潮 分析:非基本面恶化

尽管近期股价回调,但分析师指出,本地银行的基本面依然稳固。净利息收入逐步改善、财富管理费用收入持续增长以及资产质量维持稳健,均为盈利前景提供了支持。

FSM Global
FSM Global26 Oct 2026 5 Views
新加坡银行股遭遇抛售潮    分析:非基本面恶化

新加坡银行股近期波动剧烈。华侨银行(OCBC)股价在10月7日因为被花旗(Citi)下调评级而大幅下跌。隔天,这股跌势进一步扩大,大华银行(UOB)跌幅超过5%,星展集团(DBS)和华侨银行分别下跌4.7%和4.29%。

此外,摩根大通的研究报告指长期债券收益率飙升可能拖累东南亚银行第三季度的盈利表现,令本地银行股抛售加剧。

FSM Global 研究及投资组合管理部研究分析员高苑惠本月15日在8频道《狮城热话》节目中说,花旗近期的降级报告是这波回调的导火索。银行股估值早已处于历史高位,一份降级报告让已获利的投资者见好就收,抛售股票。

高苑惠重申,这轮下跌是因为分析师调低银行股预期所引发,并非因为银行基本面恶化。她在《新加坡银行:抛售潮考验涨势,但基本面依然稳固》一文中说,新加坡三大银行股持续受财富管理等非利息收入增长推动,加上避险资金流入,以及新元隔夜利率(SORA)从5月的低点回升,银行净息差(NIM)有望趋于稳定。

此外,新加坡的政治中立、健全的法治、AAA主权信用评级,以及新元逐步升值,持续强化我国作为财富枢纽的吸引力。

FSM Global 研究及投资组合管理部研究分析员陈秋伊于9月下旬撰文指出,本地银行的财富管理业务强劲增长。今年上半年,星展集团的财富管理业务资产管理规模(AUM)首度突破5000亿新元,华侨银行的资产管理规模达到3500亿新元的新高,而大华银行的高净值客户资产管理规模增至2040亿新元。

她说,在地缘政治不确定性升温下,避险资金将持续流入新加坡,从而支撑财富管理业务的增长势头。

至于银行股接下来的走势,高苑惠本月上旬接受《联合早报》访问时表示,银行的潜在基本面依然稳固,但估值水平已远高于历史平均水平。由于强劲的盈利表现已在很大程度上被股价消化,短期内进一步上涨的空间已收窄。

“这意味着,任何关于盈利增速放缓的担忧,都可能对股价产生不成比例的巨大冲击,尤其是在三家银行今年来都录得强劲涨幅之后。”

尽管近期股价回调,但高苑惠指出,净利息收入逐步改善、财富管理费用收入持续增长以及资产质量维持稳健,均为银行盈利提供了支持。

她近日在另一篇《联合早报》访问中提到,三家本地银行股在2026年内一度显著上涨后,市场将结合美国国债收益率、新元隔夜利率,以及三家银行预计在11月初公布的第三季业绩和展望,重新评估银行股的估值和盈利前景。


相关文章:

费用主导的增长,可观的总回报:2026年上半年之后的新加坡银行

新加坡2026年第四季度展望:随着改革的深入,盈利和收益支撑海峡时报指数


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