Higher HDB and EC income ceilings signal a steadier market, and a modest boost for PropNex

In this article, we assess what the higher income ceilings announced at the 2026 National Day Rally mean for PropNex.

Related article: PropNex: The CCR-heavy, backloaded launch calendar is still ahead

Related article: Singapore property prices cooled in 2Q26 — here's why PropNex still looks attractive

Property market update: income ceilings raised for HDB flats and new ECs

At the 2026 National Day Rally, the Government raised the income ceilings for new HDB flats and new ECs (Table 1). The revised HDB ceiling also applies to resale purchases with a CPF Housing Grant and to HDB housing loans.

Table 1: Monthly household income ceiling changes

Monthly household income ceiling**	From 11 Sep 2019	From 24 Aug 2026	Change
BTO flat (families)	SGD 14,000	SGD 16,000	+14.3%
BTO flat (singles)	SGD 7,000	SGD 8,000	+14.3%
New EC*	SGD 16,000	SGD 18,000	+12.5%
Source: PropNex Research, MND/HDB. *Applies to EC sites sold on or after 24 August 2026. **All components from employment or trade, including employee’s CPF deductions and excluding employer’s CPF contributions and bonuses.

A catch-up with incomes, not a loosening of policy

Between 2019 and 2025, average monthly household employment income (excluding employer CPF contributions) rose 22% to SGD 13,752 and the median rose 27% to SGD 10,591, both outpacing the 14.3% uplift in the BTO ceiling. The new ceiling covers households up to just under the 70th percentile, versus around the mid-70s percentile when set in 2019. Eligibility is being restored towards, not beyond, its 2019 breadth.

Figure 1: Average and median monthly household employment income (excluding employer CPF contributions) among resident employed households

Table 2: Monthly Household Employment Income (Excluding Employer CPF Contributions) Among Resident Employed Households at Selected Percentiles (SGD)

Percentiles	2025 (ceiling is now at SGD 16,000)	2019 (ceiling was at SGD 14,000)
10th	2,779	2,082
20th	4,628	3,597
30th	6,501	5,050
40th	8,498	6,612
50th (Median)	10,591	8,333
60th	12,993	10,229
70th	16,075	12,620
80th	20,312	16,225
90th	27,672	22,816
Source: PropNex Research, Data.gov. Data as of 31 December 2025.

HDB: limited direct impact, a marginal positive for resale liquidity

Higher BTO demand sits outside PropNex's commission pool, as BTO flats are sold directly by HDB. We expect little diversion from the resale market, whose buyers typically prioritise move-in readiness or location, and which also serves singles and Permanent Residents (PRs). Resale prices are already stabilising, rising 2.9% in 2025, the slowest since 2019, and easing 0.4% in 1H26.

The timing is also telling: that the Government is comfortable widening eligibility now suggests it sees less risk of the market overheating than in recent years. With HDB resale price growth already moderated by a sustained ramp-up in BTO supply, we see a lower likelihood of new cooling measures in the near term. This is supportive for PropNex, as a stable policy backdrop helps sustain transaction volumes, the key driver of its commission income.

The incremental positive is that households earning SGD 14,000 to SGD 16,000 can now use the CPF Housing Grant and HDB loan for resale flats. This widens the buyer pool as MOP supply rebounds and complementing July's removal of the 15-month wait-out rule. Each HDB sale by an upgrader is the first leg of our dual-commission thesis.

ECs: more financing headroom, arriving in 2027-2028

On a median new EC price of about SGD 1.83 million (based on new EC units sold up till 15 August 2026), the higher ceiling lifts maximum borrowing to around SGD 1.13 million, cutting the extra cash or CPF needed by about a third to SGD 240,750.

Table 3: Illustration of new EC financing at income ceilings of SGD 16,000 and SGD 18,000

	SGD 16,000 ceiling	SGD 18,000 ceiling
Median new EC price in 2026*	SGD 1,829,000	SGD 1,829,000
25% down payment and booking fee	SGD 457,250	SGD 457,250
Maximum loan amount**	SGD 1,005,000	SGD 1,131,000
Further cash and/or CPF payable	SGD 366,750	SGD 240,750
Monthly loan repayment	SGD 4,798	SGD 5,400
Source: PropNex Research, URA Realis. *Based on EC units sold up till 15 August 2026. **Based on a 30% Mortgage Servicing Ratio (MSR), 4% p.a. interest rate floor and 30-year loan tenure. MSR does not apply to private condominiums and landed homes, which are subject only to the Total Debt Servicing Ratio (TDSR) of 55% of gross monthly income.

This partly offsets a tighter framework. Singapore's updated EC rules, effective for Government Land Sales (GLS) sites with tenders closing on or after 8 May 2026, shift ECs from short-term investment assets to long-term owner-occupied homes, with a 10-year MOP, no Deferred Payment Scheme and 90% of units reserved for first-timers for two years. A wider, better-financed buyer pool should help sustain take-up at future EC launches.

Two caveats apply.

• The revised EC ceiling covers EC sites sold on or after 24 August 2026, so the five exempt ECs launching from 4Q26 are unaffected.
• For ECs under the new first-timer quota, incremental demand will come mainly from first-timers. HDB upgraders, as second-timers, can instead look to new private condominiums, resale condominiums or landed homes, none of which carry such a quota.

For PropNex, this is not a leakage: private homes carry higher per-unit commissions than ECs, and PropNex earns on both new launches and private resale.

Reiterating our five pillars for PropNex

• Pillar 1: The MOP pipeline is a dual-commission story. Around 48,000 flats reach MOP across 2026-2028, 28.1% more than in 2023-2025, each a potential HDB sale followed by an EC or private purchase.
• Pillar 2: Developers are positioning launch calendars around the MOP wave. About 58.1% of 2026 new launch units are in the OCR, up from 42.0% in 2025, while CCR-heavy launches concentrated in 2H26 should lift blended commission yields.
• Pillar 3: Record land bids point to higher launch prices. Peck Hay Road's SGD 1,865 psf ppr is the second-highest CCR residential land rate on record, foreshadowing higher 2027 launch prices and commission per unit.
• Pillar 4: Domestic buyers are supporting CCR and landed demand. Foreign participation has fallen to 4.7% year-to-date, yet CCR transactions of SGD 5 million and above rose 24.7% YoY in 1H26.
• Pillar 5: En bloc reform opens a new pipeline. A longer ABSD(HD) remission timeline and lower proposed consent thresholds should eventually bring new project marketing mandates.

Underpinning all five, PropNex's market share rose to 64.3% in 1H26 from 60.6% in FY25.

Valuation

Applying a fair P/E of 22x to FY2028E EPS yields a target price of SGD 2.70 by end-2028, which translates to approximately 51.7% upside from the closing price as of 28 September 2026 of SGD 1.78, alongside an average annual dividend yield of approximately 5.9% over 2026E-2028E.

Our FY2028E EPS is essentially flat (-0.3% YoY), reflecting limited visibility on the 2028 new launch pipeline and GLS supply at this juncture, rather than an expected slowdown. As 2028 launches depend largely on land sold in 2H26 and 2027, we see upside risk to our forecast should GLS supply and en bloc activity stay robust, which we will revisit as the pipeline firms up.

Table 4: PropNex earnings summary and target price

PropNex	2025A	2026E	2027E	2028E
P/E Ratio (x)	19.8	17.3	14.5	14.5
Earnings Growth (%)	72.0%	8.4%	19.3%	(0.3%)
EPS (SGD)	0.0951	0.1031	0.1230	0.1226
DPS (SGD)	0.0950	0.0928	0.1107	0.1103
Dividend Yield (%)	5.1%	5.2%	6.2%	6.2%
Target Price (Fair P/E: 22x)	SGD 2.70
Current Price	SGD 1.78
Upside Potential	51.7%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. (historical); iFAST Estimates (forecasts). Data as of 28 September 2026.

Figure 2: PropNex share price vs EPS

Conclusion

For PropNex, the higher income ceilings are a modest positive: BTO demand sits outside its commission pool, wider grant eligibility marginally supports HDB resale, and the EC benefit arrives from 2027, while quota-constrained upgraders can turn to private condominium launches or even the private resale market. We maintain our BUY rating with a target price of SGD 2.70.

Key risks include tighter cooling measures, a sharper slowdown in transaction volumes, a macro or interest rate shock, and developers absorbing higher land costs rather than passing them through to launch prices.

Disclaimer: For specific disclosure, at the time of publication of this report, IFPL (via its connected and associated entities) and the analyst who produced this report hold a NIL position in the abovementioned securities.

Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. Investments are subject to investment risks, including the possible loss of the principal amount invested.

This research report was prepared with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) tools. iFAST Financial Pte Ltd does not rely exclusively on AI for content generation; the content of this report, including all investment theses, ratings, price targets and conclusions, has been independently reviewed and verified by the research analyst(s) to ensure accuracy and professional integrity.