NODX at 46.2%: Singapore's strongest export print since 1988 confirms broadening upcycle

• NODX rose 46.2% YoY in August, while seasonally adjusted NODX increased 10.9% MoM, confirming that the acceleration was not driven solely by favourable base effects.

• Global chip sales and the persistent DRAM/NAND shortage corroborate the trend, with the Semiconductor Industry Association expecting 2026 sales to exceed USD 1.5 trillion.

• A widening capacity pipeline, including VSMC’s USD 7.8 billion fab and expansions by KLA and Applied Materials, extends visibility on Singapore’s export runway through 2029.

• Anthropic and OpenAI are deepening Singapore’s role in the AI ecosystem, broadening exposure across both the supply and adoption sides beyond merchandise trade.

• Cumulative NODX growth reached 22.4% in the first eight months, already above Enterprise Singapore’s full-year forecast range, supporting our positive view on Singapore equities.

August NODX accelerates on stronger underlying momentum

Singapore's NODX rose 46.2% year on year in August, nearly doubling July's 24.1% pace and marking the strongest monthly growth since October 1988. The reading was also comfortably above market expectations of around 35%, extending Singapore's NODX growth streak to twelve consecutive months.

Figure 1: Singapore's NODX growth hit its strongest pace since October 1988

Part of the sharp acceleration reflects a favourable base, as August 2025 recorded the year's weakest NODX value at SGD 13.3 billion. However, the strength was not solely base-driven: seasonally adjusted NODX rose 10.9% month on month, the fastest pace in four months, reversing July's 0.3% decline and June's 8.9% drop. The simultaneous acceleration in both year-on-year and sequential growth points to firm underlying export momentum.

Electronic NODX surged 131.8% year on year, accelerating from 112.0% in July, led by disk media products (+290.2%), integrated circuits (+90.9%) and personal computers (+237.9%). This extends the recent strength in storage and computing products linked to AI infrastructure demand. Non-electronic NODX also rebounded to 12.0% growth from a 2.4% decline in July, led by specialised machinery (+57.7%) and non-monetary gold (+67.0%). Enterprise Singapore attributed the rebound to a low base. For gold, the increase likely also reflects higher prices over the past year rather than a structural increase in demand, given Singapore's role as a regional gold trading and refining hub.

Export growth also broadened across major markets. NODX to the US accelerated to 91.0% from 62.8% in July, driven by disk media products and personal computers, while South Korea grew 87.1%, led by integrated circuits and personal computers. The EU27 remained the sole market to contract, although the decline narrowed sharply to 1.7% from 36.0% in July.

Table 1: NODX accelerated across Singapore's top markets in August, led by the US, China and South Korea

Market	NODX YoY	Electronic NODX YoY	Non-Electronic NODX YOY
US	91.0%	342.4%	13.3%
South Korea	87.1%	151.3%	40.3%
China	70.3%	86.7%	67.7%
Hong Kong	62.9%	77.7%	8.5%
Taiwan	58.5%	125.3%	5.8%
Malaysia	39.3%	69.6%	11.3%
Indonesia	24.5%	281.1%	-2.1%
India	23.7%	227.5%	-24.1%
Thailand	8.9%	51.2%	-15.5%
EU27	-1.7%	144.4%	-20.8%
Source: Enterprise SG, iFAST Compilations Data as of 17 September 2026

The broadening in export growth is also supported by manufacturing activity. Singapore's manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5 in August, its highest level since November 2018, while the electronics sub-index reached 52.6 and order backlogs rose to record highs. Together, the trade and manufacturing data point to sustained momentum heading into year-end rather than a fading of the current export upcycle.

Related articles: Singapore’s July NODX holds above 20%: Structural upcycle gains staying power

SG’s 2026 growth forecast upgraded to 4.5–5.5%: AI upcycle lifts outlook, positive view maintained

Global chip demand remains strong, supporting further export growth

Singapore's export strength is mirrored in global semiconductor demand. The Semiconductor Industry Association reported global chip sales of USD 403.3 billion in 2Q26, up 35.1% quarter on quarter, and expects full-year 2026 sales to exceed USD 1.5 trillion. The outlook points to broad-based semiconductor demand underpinning the current cycle rather than a one-off surge.

A key driver is the ongoing memory shortage. AI inference and hyperscale data centre demand have kept DRAM and NAND supply constrained, with TrendForce projecting DRAM and NAND prices to rise a further 13–18% and 10–15% quarter on quarter, respectively, in 3Q26. While this represents a moderation from the roughly 60% increase in 2Q26, prices remain on an upward trajectory. SK Hynix has also indicated that the shortage could persist beyond 2030, supporting continued demand for Singapore's disk media products, personal computers and integrated circuits.

Semiconductor equipment spending is also rising alongside demand. Global semiconductor equipment billings increased 23% year on year in 2Q26, according to SEMI, indicating that industry capex is responding to the stronger demand environment.

A broader AI ecosystem could extend Singapore’s export runway

Singapore’s semiconductor capacity pipeline continues to widen. VSMC, the 300mm joint venture between Vanguard International Semiconductor (VIS) and NXP, is progressing with its USD 7.8 billion Tampines facility, which is targeting initial production in 2027 and capacity of 55,000 wafers per month by 2029. VIS has since brought forward its expected timeline for full utilisation to 2028, while also 'seriously evaluating' a separate second 12-inch fab in Singapore to meet demand for supply-chain diversification. It will produce power management, automotive and industrial chips alongside silicon interposers for AI packaging — broadening Singapore's exposure across both conventional and AI-driven semiconductor demand.

Equipment capacity is expanding alongside wafer fabrication. KLA is completing the second phase of its USD 200 million Singapore expansion, which will bring its facility to 420,000 sqft and add cleanroom and R&D capacity. Applied Materials has also invested USD 500 million in a new Tampines campus, more than doubling its advanced cleanroom capacity in Singapore and supporting manufacturing and R&D for AI-driven semiconductor demand. Together, these investments should deepen Singapore’s semiconductor equipment ecosystem, supporting the specialised machinery component of non-electronic NODX as new fab capacity comes online.

Singapore’s role in the AI value chain is also broadening beyond manufacturing. Anthropic will open its fifth Asia-Pacific office in Singapore in October, citing strong enterprise demand for Claude; Singapore ranks second among 121 countries in Claude usage per capita, at 5.81 times the level expected based on its population. OpenAI has separately committed more than SGD 300 million to strengthen Singapore’s AI ecosystem, including its first Applied AI Lab outside the US and more than 200 technical roles over the next few years. These investments do not directly translate into merchandise exports, but they reinforce Singapore’s position across both the supply and adoption sides of the AI ecosystem. Combined with the expanding semiconductor capacity pipeline, this provides a broader base for Singapore’s export growth beyond the current upswing.

Structural drivers remain intact, positive view maintained

Looking ahead, year-on-year growth may moderate from August’s peak as export values begin to lap a higher base from late 2025 and early 2026. This would reflect the arithmetic of a maturing cycle rather than a deterioration in underlying demand, with global AI infrastructure investment and the semiconductor upcycle continuing to support Singapore’s export outlook. Capacity commitments extending into 2029 also provide greater visibility on the durability of the current cycle. With cumulative NODX growth reaching 22.4% in the first eight months of 2026, already above Enterprise Singapore’s 14.0–16.0% full-year forecast range, sustained momentum could provide room for a further upward revision to the outlook.

We maintain our positive view on Singapore. For investors seeking exposure to Singapore’s equity market, we continue to recommend positioning through the Amova Singapore STI ETF (SGX: G3B), and the iFAST-Amova Singapore Equity A SGD for broader exposure.

Declaration

For specific disclosure, at the time of publication of this report, IFPL (via its connected and associated entities) and the analyst who produced this report hold a NIL position in the abovementioned securities.

This research report was prepared with the assistance of artificial intelligence (AI) tools. iFAST Financial Pte Ltd does not rely exclusively on AI for content generation; the content of this report, including all investment theses, ratings, price targets and conclusions, has been independently reviewed and verified by the research analyst(s) to ensure accuracy and professional integrity.