新加坡金管局调查:经济师上调新加坡今年经济增长预测至5.0%

由于制造业表现强劲,受访经济师将新加坡今年全年经济增长预测由3.5%上调至5.0%。

FSM Global
FSM Global15 Sep 2026 9 Views
新加坡金管局调查:经济师上调新加坡今年经济增长预测至5.0%

新加坡制造业表现强劲,带动我国第二季经济增长超出预期,因此参与新加坡金融管理局调查的经济师将今年全年经济增长预测,从3.5%调高至5.0%。

贸工部8月发布的数据显示,今年第二季我国经济同比扩张5.9%,高于上次在6月份调查时所预测的增长4.3%的中位数。根据金管局9月2日发布的最新经济师调查报告,经济师预计我国第三季可取得4.6%的经济增长率。

受访经济师对2026年我国多项产业表现皆维持乐观态度。在本次调查中,经济师预测我国制造业今年全年可增长8.4%,明显高于6月时预测的5.0%;非石油国内出口(NODX)的增长率预测亦由6.1%大幅上调至17.0%。

经济师也分别调高对建筑业、金融与保险,以及批发与零售贸易业的全年增长预测。建筑业增长率从6.5%调高至7.1%;金融与保险业增长率从4.5%上调至5.4%;批发与零售贸易业增长率从4.9%上调至7.4%。

不过,经济师调低住宿与餐饮服务业的增长率预测,从1.8%下调至1.0%。

经济师普遍认为,人工智能(AI)驱动的技术周期持续上行是支撑新加坡经济前景的关键因素。此外,中东冲突缓和或解决,以及全球经济增长优于预期,都可能为新加坡经济带来成长空间。

然而,调查亦指出,中东冲突升级,以及人工智能泡沫破裂及其对金融市场产生的外溢效应,可能对我国经济前景造成负面影响。

金管局是在8月11日,向25名关注我国经济的经济师发出调查问卷,共收到21人回复。金管局上一次发布经济师调查报告是今年6月。

整体通胀压力仍处可控范围

在通货膨胀方面,经济师对我国今年全年整体通胀率预测中位数,从三个月前调查时的2.3%下调至2.1%,核心通胀率预测中位数亦从2.0%调低至1.9%;今年第三季整体通胀率及核心通胀率预测则分别为2.5%及2.4%。

此外,45%的受访经济师预期,金管局将在10月的货币政策会议上收紧货币政策,高于上次调查的30%;其余受访者则预期我国货币政策将维持不变。

FSM Global 研究及投资组合管理部研究分析员陈秋伊在《新加坡通胀率小幅上升。这就是我们对新加坡股市保持建设性看法的原因》一文中说,金管局在今年4月与7月连续两季小幅提高新元名义有效汇率(S$NEER)政策区间的升值幅度,让新元加快升值,以抑制输入型通胀。

她表示,新加坡目前整体通胀压力仍处于可控范围,下一个关键数据点将是第四季的电价调整。若中东局势缓和,燃料价格有望回落,第四季的电价也可能随之下降。但若局势恶化导致能源供应受扰,油价再次大幅上涨,将进一步推高通胀压力。

FSM Global 研究及投资组合管理部研究分析员高苑惠于8月中旬撰文指出,我国政府在今年4月和7月分别推出近10亿新元和9亿新元的援助配套,应对中东局势推高能源价格带来的生活成本压力。这些措施应有助于抑制能源冲击对国内需求的影响,但若能源冲击持续时间过长,仍可能推升通胀并拖累经济增长。

与此同时,陈秋伊对新加坡股市的前景保持乐观。她认为,支撑本地股市的因素包括银行股避险吸引力增强、工业股盈利增长、人工智能带动出口增长,以及政府持续推进资本市场振兴等。

她维持海峡时报指数2028年底目标价5,987点的预测,截至2026年8月底收盘,蕴含约18.2%的上行潜力,并附以每年约4.3%的股息收益率。尽管全球地缘政治不确定性上升,本地市场仍兼具防御性与成长性,可在投资组合中发挥平衡风险作用。


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