金价创三个月来新高,但短期波动风险不容忽视

受美国财政部扩大长期国债回购规模、美元走弱等因素推动,黄金价格大幅飙升。上周五(8月21日),国际金价突破每安士4600美元关口,创三个月以来的新高。不过,中东地缘冲突未见平息,油价再度上涨加剧通胀担忧,使各国央行对降息更加谨慎,这将对黄金等无息资产构成压力。

FSM Global
FSM Global28 Aug 2026 14 Views
金价创三个月来新高,但短期波动风险不容忽视

美元走弱带动黄金价格回涨,国际金价时隔三个月再度站上4600美元,过去一个月累计上涨超过10%。

今年以来,国际金价经历了剧烈波动。年初,黄金价格一路上扬创下逼近每安士5600美元的历史新高,随后大幅回落,并在6月下旬一度跌破4000美元。不过,金价于8月迎来强劲反弹,上周五(8月21日)伦敦现货黄金突破每安士4600美元关口,涨至三个月来新高。

本轮涨势主要受到美元走弱和美国加大力度回购长期国债等因素推动。美国财政部上周宣布,将把10年至30年期国债的回购规模提高一倍,每次操作至少达到40亿美元。消息公布后,美国长期国债收益率应声下跌,美元也转弱,投资者对美国债务加剧的忧虑升温,进一步推升黄金价格。

此外,近期美国就业、零售销售等数据走弱,降低了美联储9月加息的紧迫性,对金价形成利好。不过,中东地缘冲突未见平息,油价再度上涨加剧通胀担忧,使各国央行对降息更加谨慎。若利率维持高位,美国国债收益率可能再度上升,进而提高持有黄金这类无息资产的机会成本。

FSM Global 研究及投资组合管理部研究分析员陈秋伊本月中旬撰文指出,美联储在7月底的议息会议上虽按兵不动,但会议纪要释放明显鹰派信号。7月会议以9票赞成、3票反对的结果决定维持政策利率不变,三名投反对票的官员均主张加息。多名与会者认为,若通胀未能进一步降温,未来可能有必要升息。

由于黄金本身不产生利息收益,利率上升通常会降低其投资吸引力。

陈秋伊在《切勿逢低买入黄金》一文中说,黄金价格高度受投资者情绪、风险偏好、宏观经济及地缘政治事件影响,故短期波动性可以较为显著。由于这些因素皆难以量化,这进一步增加了黄金估值的不确定性。

有鉴于此,投资黄金实际上是对市场情绪等难以量化的因素的押注,缺乏可持续的基本面支持。一旦市场情绪逆转,资金流向有机会迅速逆转,导致金价显著回调。

她也提醒,投资者应避免以资本增值或避险为由买入黄金。对于希望以黄金分散组合风险的投资者,她建议可在投资组合中配置比例不超过10%的黄金。


相关文章:

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