PropNex: The CCR-heavy, backloaded launch calendar is still ahead

PropNex Limited (SGX: OYY)

BUY: SGD 2.70 (+42.9%)

PropNex released its 1H2026 results on 13 August 2026, reporting a net attributable profit of SGD 40.9 million on revenue of SGD 603.0 million, broadly flat year-on-year (YoY) as a 6.9% rise in agency services commission income offset a 7.8% decline in Project Marketing income on fewer new launches in the period.

In this update, we review the 1H26 earnings against our March expectations for a CCR back-loaded 2026 launch calendar and revisit the structural drivers underpinning our BUY rating: an HDB MOP pipeline now reinforced by greater resale flexibility, developers positioning the 2026 launch calendar to capture that wave, record 1H26 land bids pointing to higher 2027 launch prices, CCR and landed demand that continues to strengthen, and a newly emerging en bloc reform channel.

Revenue remains broadly stable

PropNex reported 1H2026 results on 13 August 2026, a stable half broadly in line with expectations (1H26 EPS came in at 54% of our full-year forecast for FY26), with revenue resilience masking a mix shift away from the higher-margin project marketing segment.

Table 1: Financial highlights of PropNex based on its recent performance

PropNex (in SGD thousands unless otherwise stated)	1H25	1H26	YoY Change
Revenue	598,945	603,016	+0.7%
Gross Profit	66,174	63,868	-3.5%
Gross Profit Margin (%)	11.0%	10.6%	-0.4pp
Profit attributable to owners of the company	42,256	40,943	-3.1%
Net Profit Margin (%)	7.1%	6.8%	-0.3 pp
Earnings per Share (SGD)	0.0571	0.0553	-3.1%
Dividends per Share (SGD)	0.0500	0.0500	-
Source: PropNex. Data as of 30 June 2026.

Table 2: Project Marketing continues to be the core of PropNex’s revenue

(in SGD mil)	1H25	1H26	% change
Project Marketing	258.5	238.4	-7.8%
Private Resale	125.7	125.4	-0.2%
HDB Resale	73.1	78.4	+7.3%
Rental	87.4	95.3	+9.0%
Landed Resale	33.5	42.1	+25.4%
Commercial & Industrial	16.8	18.3	+8.9%
Source: PropNex. Data as of 30 June 2026.

Figure 1: PropNex’s earnings per share

Revenue grew 0.7% YoY to SGD 603.0 million, as a 6.9% rise in commission income from agency services, to SGD 360.5 million from SGD 337.2 million, supported by healthy transaction activity in the HDB Resale, Landed Resale and Leasing segments, more than offset a 7.8% decline in project marketing commission income to SGD 238.4 million from SGD 258.5 million, on fewer new launches in the period (1H26: 3,627 units launched, down 22.2% from 4,659 units in 1H25). This mix shift compressed gross margin from 11.0% to 10.6% and drove segment profit before tax in project marketing down to SGD 10.9 million (1H25: SGD 13.9 million), even as agency services segment profit held broadly steady at SGD 36.8 million (1H25: SGD 37.9 million).

This softness is consistent with the back-loaded 2026 launch calendar we flagged in our March update: we had noted that while unit volume was broadly balanced between the two halves (an estimated 5,456 units, 49.1%, in 1H26 versus 5,660 units, 50.9%, in 2H26), the higher-margin CCR projects were skewed toward 2H26, meaning the more meaningful uplift in blended commission yields and margins was likely to materialise in 2H26, with part of that spillover only showing up in 1Q27 results given the usual revenue recognition lag. We therefore continue to view 2H26 and 1H27 as the key periods to watch for the CCR-driven margin uplift.

Underscoring continued market share gains, the company’s transaction volume market share rose to 64.3% in 1H26 from 60.6% in FY25, with gains across every segment. This is achieved despite PropNex’s agents making up only 38.1% of the total number of agents in Singapore, further highlighting its agents’ productivity.

Table 3: PropNex’s market share in terms of transaction volume across all of its property segments have expanded

PropNex’s market share in terms of transaction volume^	2025	1H26	Change
New Launches (i.e Project marketing)	48.9%	52.5%	+3.6pp
Private Resale*	65.3%	66.3%	+1.0pp
Landed Resale	52.5%	55.4%	+2.9pp
HDB Resale	63.2%	68.1%	+4.9pp
Private Leasing	38.2%	43.0%	+4.8pp
Overall	60.6%	64.3%	+3.7pp
The market share information is based on the volume of transactions and includes transactions where PropNex salespersons act on behalf of buyers and sellers in co broking with external agencies. *This includes EC, landed and non-landed property transactions Source: PropNex. Data as of 30 June 2026.

Dividends remain above stated payout policy range of 75-80%

The Board declared an interim dividend of 5.0 cents per share, unchanged YoY, reflecting a payout ratio of 90.4% and an annualised yield of 5.4% based on the SGD 1.86 closing price on 30 June 2026. The dividend will be paid on 11 September 2026, with book closure on 26 August 2026.

PropNex has a stated dividend payout policy of 75–80%, yet its payout ratio has exceeded this range since 2022. Between 2023 and 1H26, the payout ratio remained elevated at above 90%, underscoring management’s commitment to returning capital to shareholders. We expect the payout ratio to remain elevated at around 90% over FY26E–28E, supported by the company’s cash-generative, asset-light business model and limited need for intensive capital investment in the near term.

On the balance sheet, cash and cash equivalents fell to SGD 130.2 million from SGD 149.1 million, mainly on SGD 34.7 million of dividends paid and SGD 18.0 million redeployed into long-term deposits and other investments, while trade and other receivables rose 25.0% to SGD 204.3 million in line with higher revenue. Net asset value per share rose to 16.73 cents from 15.69 cents.

Figure 3: PropNex has been rewarding its shareholders through dividends

1. The MOP pipeline is a dual-commission story, not just a volume story

Every HDB flat that reaches its Minimum Occupation Period (MOP) — the five-year window after which an owner may sell on the open market — is a potential two-commission event for PropNex: one commission when the owner sells the HDB flat, and, for a meaningful proportion of those owners, a second when they subsequently purchase an EC or private condominium. That dual-commission structure is why the shape of the MOP pipeline matters more to our thesis than any single quarter's transaction count.

Based on market data, HDB upgraders consistently account for a significant 50%-60% share of private home purchases across both new launches and resale segments (as of 31 Dec 2025). This is supported by the HDB resale price index, which rose 55.0% between 3Q19 to 2Q26, generating substantial equity gains of homeowners and enabling them to embark to higher-valued private properties.

After a cyclical trough of just 8,000 MOP-eligible flats in 2025, the pipeline is expected to rebound to an estimated 13,500 in 2026, 15,000 in 2027, and 19,500 in 2028. Over the full three-year period, approximately 48,000 flats are expected to reach MOP — 28.1% more than in the prior three years of 2023 to 2025 (37,474 units).

In 2026, Punggol (3,222 units) and Tampines (2,133 units) are expected to see the largest increases in MOP-eligible flats, which could translate into meaningful upgrader demand supporting new launches for both ECs and private condominiums. While new EC rules may redirect part of this upgrader demand toward resale condos or private launches rather than new ECs, the overall commission pool should remain supported.

Figure 4: A rebound of MOP-eligible HDB flats is expected in 2026

Table 4: HDB MOP Pipeline (2025A–2028E)

Metric	2025A	2026E	2027E	2028E
HDB flats reaching MOP	8,000	13,500	15,000	19,500
YoY Growth	-38.9%	+68.8%	+11.1%	+30.0%
Cumulative 2026–2028 vs 2023–2025	48,000 units entering the HDB resale market, which is 28.1% more than the prior 3-year period (2023–2025)
Source: HDB, PropNex Research, data.gov.sg. Data as of 30 June 2026.

Table 5: Approximately 13,500 HDB flats are expected to reach minimum occupation period in 2026, rebounding from a low of 8,000 units in 2025

Town	2-room flat	3-room flat	4-room flat	5-room flat	Total
Bedok	409	0	757	274	1,440
Bukit Batok	187	34	0	0	221
Bukit Panjang	51	17	203	79	350
Geylang	136	183	0	0	319
Hougang	0	0	155	130	285
Kallang/Whampoa	0	85	158	0	243
Punggol	890	313	1,334	685	3,222
Queenstown	408	1,094	659	244	2,405
Sembawang	0	83	131	96	310
Sengkang	0	0	198	132	330
Tampines	0	244	1,162	727	2,133
Toa Payoh	218	340	800	236	1,594
Woodlands	0	72	100	0	172
Yishun	0	96	252	108	456
Note: Estimations may vary slightly due to different sources of data Source: 99.co.

This MOP-driven resale wave now coincides with greater flexibility on the demand side. On 28 July 2026, the Government removed the 15-month wait-out period that had applied to private property owners buying a non-subsidised HDB resale flat. The rule, introduced in September 2022, kept former private homeowners out of the resale market for over a year after selling; with the HDB resale price index recording two consecutive quarterly dips of 0.1% in 1Q26 and 0.3% in 2Q26.

Moreover, HDB processed about 1,800 appeals since the 15-month wait-out period was introduced in 2022, with only one in four appeals approved. This suggests that a pool of private property owners who were unable to secure an exemption may have delayed their rightsizing or downgrade plans. With the removal of the 15-month waiting period, some of this pent-up demand could now translate into additional demand for the HDB resale market.

In short, removing it widens the pool of eligible HDB resale buyers just as MOP-eligible HDB resale supply is rebounding. Notably, HDB resale transactions of 5-room and executive flats, the categories most affected by the rule, fell sharply in 3Q22 and did not recover to pre-rule levels as of 1H26. We see the timing as complementary rather than coincidental: more MOP-eligible flats reaching the market, met with a larger pool of buyers now free to purchase them, and potentially some additional private resale stock freed up as former owners right-size out. This reinforces the MOP pipeline story, supporting both the HDB Resale and Private Resale segments.

2. Developers are positioning the 2026 launch calendar to capture this MOP wave

Developers appear to be positioning their own pipelines deliberately to capture MOP-driven upgrader demand, and early sales results support that view. Approximately 58.1% of 2026 new launch units are in the OCR, up from 42.0% in 2025 — a shift timed to coincide with the MOP rebound outlined above. The strong take-up at Rivelle Tampines, Pinery Residences, and Tengah Garden Residences — 92%, 93%, and 99% at launch respectively — all in the OCR, validates this positioning.

Table 6: Most projects launched in 1H26 still see healthy demand at launch

Launch Date	Project	Region	Units	Sales Rate at Launch	Average Price (SGD psf)
Jan	Narra Residences	OCR	544	25%	$2,180
Jan	Newport Residences	CCR	246	57%	$3,370
Mar	River Modern	CCR	455	90%	$3,266
Mar	Rivelle Tampines EC	OCR	572	92%	$1,863
Mar	Pinery Residences	OCR	588	93%	$2,546
Apr	Vela Bay	OCR	515	72%	$2,886
Apr	Tengah Garden Residences	OCR	863	99%	$2,120
May	Hudson Place Residences	RCR	327	61%	$2,458
Source: URA, Business Times, EdgeProp. Data as of 30 June 2026. Note: No new launches in June 2026, which may be due to the June school holidays.

Figure 5: Unsold units / TTM sales remain low, suggesting healthy demand

Total available inventory, including unsold units carried over from 2025, remains broadly stable at approximately 16,597 units (2025: 16,931 units) — providing PropNex with a resilient addressable market even in a year of lower new launch volumes.

The EC pipeline is a related consideration for this launch positioning. New EC rules introduced on 8 May 2026 extended the Minimum Occupation Period for new ECs from 5 to 10 years and removed the Deferred Payment Scheme, with only the five upcoming EC projects tendered before 8 May 2026 (an estimated 1,975 upcoming units to be launched) exempt from these changes. We expect developers to price these projects at a premium given their exemption from the revised rules.

For context, the most recent EC launch, Rivelle, was launched in March 2026 at an average price of SGD 1,893 psf. Against this backdrop, we estimate that developers could price the upcoming exempt ECs at around SGD 2,000 psf.

Table 7: Summary of key changes to EC from GLS sites with tender closing dates on or after 8 May 2026

Changes to new ECs	Current	New
Minimum occupancy period (after which, can sell to Singaporeans or PRs)	5 years	10 years
Fully privatised (after which, can sell to foreigners)	10 years	15 years
Priority period for first-time homebuyers	1 month	2 years
Percentage of first timer to second timer buyer quota	70%/30%	90%/10%
Deferred payment scheme option	Yes	No
Source: Ministry of National Development. Data as of 8 May 2026.

No.	Project / Area	Number of units	Launch
1	Coastal Cabana	748	Launched in Jan 2026
2	Rivelle Tampines	572	Launched in Mar 2026
3	Senja Close	300	4Q26
4	Sembawang Road	265	4Q26
5	Woodlands Drive 17 (CDL)	420	4Q26
6	Woodlands Drive (Sim Lian Group)	560	Tba, 2027 expected
7	Miltonia Close in Yishun (Hoi Hup Realty)	430	Tba, 2027 expected
Total upcoming EC launches		1,975	4Q26-2027
Source: PropNex, EdgeProp. Data as of 11 May 2026.

For EC projects launched under the new framework, we think this could temper demand for new ECs specifically, as the longer lock-in and financing changes make them a less flexible option relative to private condominiums.

We do not see this as a net negative for PropNex, however: any upgrader demand that steps back from new ECs may redirect toward private condo new launches or the private resale market instead, both of which PropNex also earns commission on, and both of which sit within the same OCR-heavy 2026 launch calendar discussed above. The channel may shift, but the underlying MOP-driven demand, and PropNex's ability to capture a commission from it, should largely remain intact.

Most importantly, ECs are a lower-margin segment within Project Marketing. New private condominiums, which account for 79% of the 2026 pipeline, or 8,811 units, generate structurally higher per-unit commissions given their higher absolute selling prices. The Project Marketing commission pool is thus weighted toward private condos by design. Even in a scenario where post-new-rules EC demand moderates over 2027 and 2028, the private condo pipeline, supported by GLS and record land bids, remains the dominant earnings driver.

3. Record 1H26 land bids show developers underwriting the CCR resilience thesis with their own capital

Developers are now backing the CCR resilience thesis with capital, not just sentiment — and the shift is recent. In 1Q26, none of the five GLS sites awarded sat within the CCR. That reversed sharply in 2Q26: of five further sites awarded, four sat in the CCR, and developers bid for them aggressively. Peck Hay Road's SGD 1,865 psf ppr (per square foot per plot ratio) land rate marks the second-highest CCR residential land rate on record, behind only the SGD 2,377 psf ppr Cuscaden Road site in 2018, while River Valley Green (Parcel C) set a fresh benchmark for its precinct at SGD 1,730 psf ppr — 21.8% above the adjacent parcel awarded barely a year earlier.

For PropNex, this land-bid data functions as a leading indicator rather than a standalone data point: land prices achieved in 1H26 typically foreshadow the launch prices these projects will carry when they reach the market in 2027, and because commissions scale with transaction value, higher launch prices translate directly into higher absolute commission income per unit.

Across 1H26 as a whole, ten GLS sites (nine private residential plots and one EC site) were awarded, adding approximately 4,152 private residential homes (4,712 including the EC site) to the forward launch pipeline. Across the nine private residential tenders, developers submitted a combined 40 bids, averaging 4.4 bids per site — itself a signal of sustained developer appetite even as the broader price print cooled.

Table 9: GLS sites awarded in 1H26, plus Bayshore Drive (tender closed 15 July 2026) — land rates and estimated launch prices

GLS Site	District*	Type	Est. Units	Award Date	Land Rate (SGD per square foot per plot ratio (psf ppr))	Est. Launch Price (SGD psf)	Commission Relevance for PropNex
Dairy Farm Walk	D23 (OCR)	Condo	480	Jan 2026	962 (5.7% below Narra site)	$2,020–$2,200	Gradual seller pool; broadly in line with existing Dairy Farm benchmarks
Tanjong Rhu Road	D15 (RCR)	Condo	525	Feb 2026	1,455	$2,700–$3,100	First new D15 GLS in about 30 years; scarcity premium supports high average selling price (ASP) and commission quantum
Lentor Central	D26 (OCR)	Condo	562	Mar 2026	1,278 (Lentor estate record)	$2,450–$2,700	PropNex appointed across Lentor precinct; rising PSF floor directly expands per-unit commission
Dover Drive	D5 (RCR)	Mixed-use	625	Mar 2026	1,556 (2nd-highest RCR ever)	$2,830–$3,200+	First GLS in Dover-Medway; 31% land cost step-up vs prior Bloomsbury site in same precinct
Woodlands Drive 17 (Sim Lian)	D25 (OCR)	EC	560	Jan 2026	794 (record EC)	$1,750–$2,000	2,700+ MOP-eligible flats in North by 2027; no EC in Woodlands since 2016
Kallang Close	D12 (RCR)	Condo	470	Apr 2026	1,415	$2,900–$3,100	With a capped 115 sqm retail component and a mandatory childcare centre
Dunearn Road (Plot 2)	D11 (CCR)	Condo	330	Apr 2026	1,625	$3,300–$3,600	Residential with Commercial at 1st storey
Holland Plain (Parcel B)	D10 (CCR)	Condo	280	May 2026	1,491	$3,000–$3,200	Second Sim Lian site in the precinct, 4.1% above its first Holland Link bid
Peck Hay Road	D9 (CCR)	Condo	380	Jun 2026	1,865	$3,400–$3,900	Second-highest CCR residential land rate on record (since Cuscaden Road, 2018)
River Valley Green (Parcel C)	D9 (CCR)	Condo	500	Jun 2026	1,730	$3,300–$3,500	New benchmark land rate for River Valley/Zion, +21.8% vs. adjacent Parcel B. River Modern launched in March this year saw 90% takeup during its launch weekend at an average selling price of SGD 3,266 psf
Bayshore Drive^	D16 (OCR)	Mixed-use	1,280	Jul 2026	1,323	$2,200–$2,500	Singapore’s first SGD 2 billion non-CBD GLS site. 1,280 residential units integrated with a bus interchange, Bedok South MRT station (Thomson-East Coast Line), and ~22,500 sqm (~242,190 sq ft) of commercial/retail space
Source: URA, Stacked Homes, Knight Frank, iFAST Estimates. Data as of 30 June 2026. Est. launch prices based on analyst projections; actual prices subject to developer discretion. *OCR refers to Outside Central Region (suburban area), RCR refers to Rest of Central Region (near city centre), while CCR refers to Core Central Region (city centre). ^not part of 1H26 GLS bids, its tender only closed 15 July 2026

4. Domestic buyers are stepping into the CCR as the premium narrows

Singapore's residential market, and in particular the CCR and landed segments, is showing renewed price resilience amidst a highly uncertain global macro and geopolitical backdrop, extending a trend we first flagged in July. As PropNex's commissions scale with transaction value, this mix shift toward higher-priced segments is commission-accretive in its own right.

The 2Q26 print bears this out: while the broader non-landed market softened, the CCR posted the strongest price gain across all segments at +2.0% QoQ, and landed housing, a scarce, tightly supply-constrained segment whose ownership is largely restricted to Singapore citizens, posted an even sharper 2.6% gain. Foreign buyers accounted for an average of 17% of new home purchases between 2015 and 2022, falling to 10.7% in 2024 and to just 4.7% year-to-date (as of 16 July 2026) in 2026 following the April 2023 ABSD hike to 60% for foreigners.

Figure 6: New sales by residential status

Source: URA, Business Times, EdgeProp, OCBC. Data as of 16 July 2026.

Despite this pullback, new CCR condo sales jumped roughly fivefold to 1,916 units in 2025 from 378 units in 2024, with domestic buyers, newly naturalised citizens and PRs converting from renting to ownership, overseas Singaporeans preserving capital locally, and existing owners upgrading as the CCR-RCR price premium narrows, filling the space foreign buyers vacated. That premium compressed further to 10.1% in 2025 from 21.5% in 2024, making the CCR a comparatively more accessible upgrade option than in prior years.

Figure 7: The spread between CCR and RCR has narrowed in recent years

Residential property data in 1H26 points to this trend building rather than fading. CCR luxury transactions priced at SGD 5 million and above reached 353 units, up 24.7% YoY, with new sales in that band up a sharper 78% YoY to 73 units. Large prime non-landed home sales (2,500 sq ft and above, across the CBD, Orchard Road, Sentosa, Bukit Timah and Thomson) totalled 128 transactions worth a combined SGD 1.1 billion, with the average unit price up 8.3% to SGD 2,689 psf.

Notably, River Modern, the CCR launch highlighted in Table 6 for its 90% sell-out on launch weekend, was also the best-selling project in the SGD 5 million-and-above segment in 1H26 with 44 units transacted. The ultra-luxury tier (SGD 10 million and above) also strengthened, with 23 units changing hands in 2Q26, a 15-quarter high.

For PropNex, the commission implication holds: a tilt toward higher-value CCR and landed transactions is commission-accretive, since absolute commission quantum scales with transaction price. The Orchard Boulevard and Holland Plain sites on the 2H26 GLS Confirmed List, both within the CCR, would position PropNex to participate more directly in this segment should the trend persist.

5. En bloc reform lowers the barriers to collective sale

Beyond the MOP and GLS-driven pipeline above, we see a fifth structural driver emerging: two policy changes announced within a week of each other in late July and early August 2026 that directly lower the barriers to en bloc redevelopment, distinct from the resale-side flexibility discussed under the MOP pipeline in Pillar 1.

First, on 28 July 2026, the ABSD(HD) remission timeline for large-scale en bloc redevelopments was extended. Large sites yielding 700 to under 1,400 units will now have six years (up from 5.5) to complete and sell their units, and mega sites of 1,400 units or more will have seven years, with complex projects eligible for a further six-month extension. This gives developers more confidence to take on larger, more ambitious redevelopment projects, and could encourage more property owners at large, ageing developments to consider a collective sale.

Second, on 4 August 2026, the Land Titles (Strata) (Amendment) Bill 2026 was tabled in Parliament, which would lower the statutory en bloc consent threshold on a tiered basis: to 70% for developments aged 40 to 59 years, and to 65% for those aged 60 years and older, down from 80% for developments aged 10 to 39 years. This directly addresses the collective-action problem that has stalled past en bloc attempts at older estates such as Braddell View, Laguna Park and Pine Grove, all of which are now over 40 years old and, based on figures reported in the media, could collectively yield well over 6,000 new homes if successfully redeveloped. Together with the extended ABSD(HD) remission timeline, these two measures directly lower the barriers to collective sale, from reaching consent through to a developer being willing and able to take the site on.

For PropNex, a fresh wave of en bloc activity would eventually translate into new project marketing mandates once redeveloped sites are relaunched, a genuinely new, multi-year pipeline layered on top of the four pillars above rather than a restatement of them. This channel will also take longer to show up in commissions than the MOP or GLS pipelines, since it depends on collective sale agreements being reached, land being sold, and projects being relaunched. We are not forecasting an en bloc frenzy, and pricing discipline among developers will remain a key determinant of whether deals materialise, but we see it as an incremental, positive addition to PropNex's structural growth story that we will monitor into 2H26 and 2027.

Taken together, multiple drivers support our BUY rating and SGD 2.70 target price on PropNex.

• An approximately 48,000-unit HDB MOP wave building across 2026–2028 remains the anchor, a dual-commission tailwind now reinforced by greater resale flexibility following the removal of the 15-month wait-out rule.
• Developers are positioning the 2026 launch calendar to capture this wave, while total inventory has held broadly stable at around 16,000 units even as new launch volumes decline.
• Record 1H26 land bids point to higher 2027 launch prices, and in turn, higher commission per transaction, corroborated by CCR luxury demand that continues to accelerate even as foreign buyers retreat.
• Layered on top of these is a newly emerging en bloc reform channel, following the extended ABSD(HD) remission timeline and lower consent thresholds tabled in early August, which adds a genuinely new, multi-year pipeline.

Applying a fair P/E multiple of 22x to our forecasted FY2028E EPS yields a target price of SGD 2.70 by the end of 2028, implying approximately 42.9% upside from the current price of SGD 1.89 as of 12 August 2026. We also estimate an average annual dividend yield of approximately 5.5% over 2026E–2028E.

Table 10: PropNex Earnings Summary and Target Price

PropNex	2025A	2026E	2027E	2028E
P/E Ratio (X)	19.8	18.3	15.4	15.4
Earnings Growth (%)	72.0%	8.4%	19.3%	(0.3%)
EPS (SGD)	0.0951	0.1031	0.1230	0.1226
DPS (SGD)	0.0950	0.0928	0.1107	0.1103
Dividend Yield (%)	5.1%	4.9%	5.9%	5.8%
Target Price (Fair P/E: 22X)	SGD 2.70
Current Price	SGD 1.89
Upside Potential	42.9%
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. (historical); iFAST Estimates (forecasts). Data as of 12 August 2026’s closing price.

Figure 8: PropNex Share price vs Earnings per share